A population-based estimate
The model uses outcomes from patients with similar measured characteristics to estimate risk for a defined operation. It does not predict one person’s outcome with certainty.
STS PROM · CARDIAC SURGERY RISK
Understand your STS risk estimate before heart surgery.
The STS operative risk calculator can frame a more useful conversation about CABG, valve surgery, and other adult cardiac operations. The number only helps when the planned procedure, clinical inputs, model version, and limitations are understood.
Procedure-specificThe exact planned operation matters.Input-dependentCurrent, complete data matters.Not a predictionOne estimate, not an individual outcome.
START WITH THE OFFICIAL MODEL
The current STS tool is broader—and more dynamic—than a single PROM number.
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons describes its next-generation ACSD calculator as a tool for operative mortality, major morbidity, and short-term outcomes after the vast majority of adult cardiac operations.
STS says the risk models use nationwide Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data and are recalibrated every three months. The official calculator displayed application version 2.0.6 and a January 9, 2025 update date when this page was reviewed on July 16, 2026. Check the version shown when your score is calculated.
Read the current STS calculator overviewWHAT SHAPES THE ESTIMATE
A risk estimate begins with a precisely defined case.
The official calculator asks different questions depending on the operation. These four areas explain why two people—or two entries for the same person—can produce different results.
- 01Procedure definition
The planned operation
Procedure type, whether another procedure is planned at the same time, surgical priority, and prior cardiac operations can change which model applies and the resulting estimate.
- 02Time-sensitive inputs
Current clinical status
Age, body size, heart function, symptoms, recent events, laboratory values, and whether the operation is elective or urgent all matter.
- 03Comorbidity context
Other health conditions
Kidney, lung, vascular, neurologic, liver, and metabolic conditions are among the factors the official calculator may ask about when relevant.
- 04Input integrity
Complete, correctly coded answers
A recent creatinine, the correct procedure category, and an accurate urgency designation can materially affect the result. Unknown is not the same as no.
WHAT THE NUMBER MEANS
Useful context.
Not a verdict.
An STS estimate can make surgical risk more concrete. It cannot decide whether an operation is necessary, which approach is best, or what will happen to one person.
Open the official calculatorProcedure-specific—not universal
The official STS calculator supports many adult cardiac operations, but the applicable model and reported outcomes depend on the exact planned procedure.
One input to shared decision-making
STS states that calculator estimates should be considered with clinical judgment and patient and family preferences—not used alone to include or exclude someone from surgery.
Not a hospital or surgeon grade
An individual STS operative-risk estimate is different from an STS program star rating. One describes modeled patient risk; the other summarizes certain publicly reported program outcomes.
HOW TO USE YOUR RESULT
Take the estimate back to the clinical decision.
Ask your treating surgeon or cardiologist to show you the planned procedure, inputs, and current model used. Then connect the estimate to the anatomy, symptoms, treatment alternatives, expected durability, recovery priorities, and information the model does not measure well.
QUESTIONS FOR YOUR TEAM05
- Which exact operation and urgency category did you enter?
- Are any inputs missing, estimated, or out of date?
- Which outcomes does this procedure-specific model report?
- What important risks or benefits are not captured by this number?
- How does the estimate change the options we should discuss?
FROM RISK SCORE TO DECISION
A score is most useful when both sides of the decision can interpret it.
A WHITEGLOVE Heart Team review brings cardiac surgery and cardiology to the same complete record. When an STS estimate is applicable, the physicians can consider its inputs and limits alongside the diagnosis, anatomy, workup, alternatives, and patient priorities.
The result is one co-signed, patient-facing WHITEGLOVE Insights™ report—designed to support the next conversation with the treating team, not replace it.
Explore a sample reportSTS PROM FAQ
Questions worth answering before you trust the percentage.
These answers are educational. For a patient-specific calculation, use the current official STS tool and discuss the result with the treating physicians.
Official STS calculatorWhat does STS PROM mean?
STS refers to The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. PROM commonly refers to predicted risk of mortality. The current STS adult cardiac operative calculator also reports major morbidity and other short-term outcomes when supported for the selected procedure.
Is the WHITEGLOVEMD estimator the official STS calculator?
No. The WHITEGLOVEMD tool is an educational estimator and does not reproduce the current official STS model. For an official calculation, use the STS ACSD Operative Risk Calculator or ask your cardiac-surgery team to calculate and document the score using the current STS tool.
Which operations can the official STS calculator evaluate?
The official next-generation STS calculator covers the vast majority of adult cardiac operations, but model availability and required fields vary by planned procedure. STS also publishes separate calculators for some specialized operations. Confirm that the exact operation being discussed is supported by the current tool.
How current is an STS risk estimate?
STS says its next-generation models use current nationwide Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data and are recalibrated every three months. The official calculator page displayed application version 2.0.6 and “Last Updated: January 9, 2025” when this page was reviewed on July 16, 2026. Because model versions and interfaces can change, check the date and version shown by the official calculator when the score is calculated.
What happens if an input is missing or entered incorrectly?
The estimate is only as reliable as the selected procedure and entered data. Missing, outdated, or miscoded values can change the result. Ask which values were used, whether any required fields were unavailable, and whether the score should be rerun after new testing.
What is a good or bad STS PROM score?
There is no single percentage that is universally good or bad across every operation and patient. Historical cut points have been used in specific valve-treatment contexts, but current decisions also depend on anatomy, symptoms, treatment durability, life expectancy, frailty, patient goals, and available alternatives. Discuss the procedure-specific estimate with the treating Heart Team.
Can I use an STS PROM score to choose between TAVR and surgery?
An operative STS estimate can help describe surgical risk, but it does not decide between TAVR and surgical valve replacement. The choice also depends on valve and vascular anatomy, age, durability, coronary disease, other procedures that may be needed, and the patient’s priorities. TAVR-specific tools and Heart Team review may also be relevant.
Does a high estimate mean surgery should not be offered?
No. STS explicitly cautions that its calculator should not be used by itself to exclude a patient from surgery based on a single characteristic or modeled estimate. The result belongs in a broader discussion with the surgeon, cardiologist, patient, and family.
Important limits
WHITEGLOVEMD is not affiliated with or endorsed by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. “STS” and the STS calculator refer to tools published by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. The WHITEGLOVEMD estimator is educational and is not the official STS model. This page and its tools do not diagnose, recommend treatment, or replace a surgeon, cardiologist, or emergency care. Call 911 for urgent symptoms.
YOUR NEXT CONVERSATION
Know the number. Understand the decision around it.
Start with the official STS calculation. If the proposed operation, alternatives, or next step still feels unclear, an independent dual-physician record review can help organize the questions that remain.