STS-PROM is the gold-standard cardiac surgery risk model used by US surgeons before every CABG, valve, and aortic case. Compute yours in 60 seconds — and see how it compares to EuroSCORE II and AATS side-by-side.
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality is the most widely used cardiac surgery risk model in North America. Derived from the STS National Database — over 7 million procedures — it uses 40+ clinical variables to estimate the probability of death within 30 days of surgery, plus 7 other major adverse outcomes.
Every US cardiac surgeon computes STS-PROM before CABG, valve, and aortic operations. The score guides Heart Team decisions (TAVR vs SAVR, repair vs replace, operate vs medical therapy) — and is required for STS National Database reporting. Read the full STS-PROM explainer →
40+ variables across four domains. Most you can pull from your existing chart in 5 minutes.
STS-PROM estimates 8 distinct perioperative outcomes — not just mortality.
The conventional STS-PROM bands historically guided TAVR vs SAVR decisions. They remain useful shorthand — but always interpreted in context with your anatomy, age, and goals.
STS-PROM, EuroSCORE II, and AATS each catch what the others miss. Our free calculator runs all three side-by-side — and flags where they disagree.
Run all three freeSTS-PROM (Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality) is the most widely used cardiac surgery risk model in North America. It estimates your individual probability of death within 30 days of surgery using 40+ clinical variables, derived from the STS National Database of more than 7 million cardiac surgery cases. Most US cardiac surgeons compute it for every patient before a CABG, valve, or aortic operation.
STS-PROM is well-calibrated at the population level — it predicts overall mortality rates accurately across large groups. For individual patients, the score is a strong indicator but not a guarantee: it explains roughly 70-75% of the variance in outcomes. For best accuracy, STS-PROM should be compared against EuroSCORE II and the AATS Cardiac Risk Calculator (which captures frailty, nutritional status, and chest anatomy more aggressively).
The conventional bands are: low risk = STS-PROM less than 4%, intermediate risk = 4-8%, high risk = greater than 8%. These bands historically guided TAVR vs surgical AVR decisions — TAVR was first approved for high-risk patients (greater than 8%), then expanded to intermediate (4-8%), then low (less than 4%). Note that lower scores do not always mean surgery is the right call; the decision must also weigh durability, anatomy, and patient preference.
Yes — but verify. STS-PROM is publicly available; you can recompute it yourself. If your surgeon's number differs meaningfully from what you compute (or what an independent second opinion calculates), ask which variables they entered. Common discrepancies arise from differing creatinine values, ambiguous urgency coding, or unrecorded frailty inputs. WhiteGloveMD includes STS-PROM, EuroSCORE II, and AATS in every White Glove Insights report for transparency.
STS-PROM was originally designed for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR), not TAVR. It still serves as a useful baseline indicator of overall surgical risk for TAVR candidates, but the TAVR-specific risk model (STS/ACC TVT) is more accurate for TAVR outcomes. A complete second-opinion review should report both.
All three are validated cardiac surgery risk models. STS-PROM is the dominant US standard (derived from 7M+ US cases). EuroSCORE II is the European standard (derived from 22K cases across 154 hospitals in 43 countries). AATS uses 75+ variables including frailty (5-meter walk time, grip strength, Clinical Frailty Scale) — making it the most aggressive at catching high-risk older patients. For maximum accuracy, all three should be calculated and compared. Our free calculator at /tools/risk-calculator estimates all three side-by-side.
WhiteGloveMD pairs a cardiac surgeon and cardiologist with our Clintelligence™ AI pipeline. STS, EuroSCORE II, AATS, plus an independent recommendation in 48 hours. From $995.